China's January Import & Export Exceed Expected Growth Foreign Trade Opens Favorable Sense
Analysts pointed out that the major import surplus is mainly due to the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the RMB appreciation and other factors, while the double-digit export growth is consistent with the fundamentals of global economic recovery.
However, subject to the uncertainty of the prospect of global economic recovery and the large monthly volatility of trade data in the first quarter, it is difficult to deduce the full-year trend based on the January data alone. The follow-up remains to be cautiously observed.
January import and export from the data is quite good, far exceeding market expectations, on the one hand this year's Spring Festival last year than last year, the Spring Festival this year in February, due to the Spring Festival misplaced January import and export data is better, while the substantial growth in imports also showed Domestic demand is strong. "Niu Li, director of the Macroeconomics Research Center of China's National Information Center, said.
He said that in light of the monthly fluctuations in foreign trade data generally in the first quarter, it is difficult to infer the foreign trade situation in the first quarter alone based on the January data. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of the data in February is also required, but a good start also opens up the Chinese economy Good head.
China Customs announced on Thursday that January exports in January rose 11.1% YoY and imports up 36.9% YoY, while the Reuters forecast was 9.6% and 9.8% respectively. January trade surplus was US $ 20.34bn. Reuters The median estimate is a surplus of 54.1 billion U.S. dollars.
China Monthly Import and Export Growth and Trade Balance Chart: tmsnrt.rs/2Epifv4
"Expected exports this year, more than expected, although due to the Spring Festival mismatch should be January-February mergers and acquisitions, but the good start again boost confidence." Shenwan Hongyuan chief macroeconomic analyst Li Huiyong said, "still think the probability of export exceeding expectations, has the full year Export growth is expected to increase from 4,5% to 6,7% .It is expected to keep the growth rate of imports higher than that of exports this year. "
He maintained a 6.8% forecast for the first quarter GDP growth rate unchanged.
Customs data showed that in January, China exported 1.32 trillion yuan in January, up 6% over the same period of last year; its import was 1.19 trillion yuan, up 30.2% over the same period of last year; its trade surplus was 135.8 billion yuan, narrowing 59.7%. In January, China's foreign trade export leader index was 41.6, up 0.5 points from the previous month.
According to Cai Hao and Li Haijing, macroeconomic team from Evergrowing Bank Research Institute, import growth was strong on the one hand due to the strong appreciation of the renminbi. Renminbi sharply strengthened in January to a certain extent, good imports, while the United States exports to the good (US ISM manufacturing
The new export order in the PMI sub-index was 59.8, the highest since April 2011, confirming to a certain extent the stronger Chinese imports. In January, the import growth rate of China's imports from the United States in Renminbi was as high as 20.5%.
On the other hand, the sharp increase of import growth in January also showed strong domestic demand as the Spring Festival approached, while the rise of global crude oil and other commodity prices also supported the growth of imports.
"On the whole, the strong overall trade performance in January and the continued robustness of the global economy will provide strong support to foreign demand. However, we must pay attention to the negative impact on exports of the RMB exchange rate, such as the short-term strengthening of the Sino-US trade friction and warming," they said.
Exceed expectations of foreign trade data did not boost investor confidence, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the Chinese stock market. SSEC continued downward today, the latest reported down 2.32% to 3,232.57 points; RMB immediate depreciation against the dollar spot, the lowest intraday hit 6.3480 yuan.
** optimistic about the prospects for foreign trade **
Although the good start of trade data in January opened a good head for China's economy, due to the disturbance of the Spring Festival, it is difficult to predict the future foreign trade situation in January alone.
Analysts believe optimistic and cautious on the situation of China's foreign trade this year as uncertainties in the prospect of global economic recovery still exist and the investment behavior both at home and abroad may become more cautious.
Zhang Yongjun, researcher at China's Center for International Economic Exchanges, pointed out that although foreign trade has started well, there is still not enough evidence that foreign trade will be able to make a fortuitous move this year. Therefore, we still need to combine with the subsequent comprehensive data analysis in February and March. At the same time, changes in the RMB exchange rate also increase the uncertainty of foreign trade .
Cai Hao also said that in January the trade surplus narrowed to 20.34 billion US dollars, 48.863 billion US dollars last year, which is with the Trump administration recently provoked China's "trade bickering" is not unrelated to China's January import and export trade surplus Sharply narrowed also showed a gesture;
Looking forward to February, due to the influence of the Spring Festival dislocation, the import growth rate or a more substantial decline, due to the recent sharp appreciation of the renminbi, the export growth rate also released slow.
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According to the data from the online survey of the Customs, January's index of Chinese export managers was 43.4, down 0.8 from the previous month. The newly-added export order index, the confidence index of export managers and the comprehensive cost index of export enterprises dropped 0.5, 1.3, 0.6 respectively 47.8, 48.7, 19.9.
According to Wan Zhe, chief economist of China National Gold Group, with the contraction of monetary policy, the synchronization of the global economic recovery may not be as consistent as last year and there may be differentiation.
The future impact on China's import and export will also be certain Uncertainty. In addition, from the domestic point of view, the construction along the Belt and Road provides great impetus. However, on the whole, the quantity is still not high enough. It will take time to truly become a strong economic growth point.
In addition, there are also uncertainties in the domestic economy. "This year, under the policy of tight financial supervision and restriction on environmental protection, it will have a positive effect on the enterprises in the long run and may shorten the contractual effect in the short term," said Wan Zhe.
China's Ministry of Commerce spokesman peak earlier said that in 2018 there are uncertainties in the trade friction between China and the United States.
Dialogue and consultation should be used to effectively control differences and properly resolve them in accordance with international rules. China is firmly opposed to any form of trade and investment protectionism. It is paying close attention In the 301 U.S. investigation of China, it will take all necessary measures and resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of China.
January US dollar denominated trade data details are as follows:
Indicator Actual value Estimated median Estimated range Last month same period last year
Export (%) 11.1 9.6 -3 ~ 28 10.9 6.6
Import (%) 36.9 9.8 -5 ~ 21.5 4.5 17
Trade surplus (100 million U.S. dollars) 203.4 541 20 ~ 678 546.85 488.63 (End)
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